Climate Breakdown: The Arctic Ocean could be Ice-free by the 2030s

The arctic ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do an excellent job of reducing emissions between now and then. That's the worrying conclusion of a new study in Nature Communications.

The disappearance of sea ice at the top of the world would not only be a symbolic sign of climate breakdown, but it would have global, damaging, and dangerous consequences.

, The ice which remains at the end of the summer is called Multiyear sea ice and is considerably thicker than its seasonal counterpart. Over the past 40, this multiyear sea ice has shrunk from around 7 million sq. km to 4 million sq. km.

Consequences:-

The Arctic Ocean might first become ice-free in summer, sometimes called a "blue-ocean event".

It is defined as when the sea ice area drops below 1 million sq. km.

Open water at the north pole for the first time in thousands of years.

Melting Faster than Models Predicted:-

• The Models predicted a loss of about 2.5% per decade, while the observations were closer to almost 8%.

• The latest IPCC Climate science report, published in 2021, reaches a similar conclusion about the timing of an ice-free Arctic ocean.

• 2000: an assessment of early generations of climate models found they generally under-predicted the loss of sea ice.

Importance of Arctic Sea Ice:-

Climate Influence: plays a crucial role in influencing global climate patterns.

Reflects sunlight, helping to maintain the earth's energy balance and cool polar regions.

Bio-Diversity and Indigenous communities: Changes in sea ice impact bio-diversity, particularly mammals like polar bears and walruses.

Indigenous Arctic populations reliant on sea ice for hunting, breeding, and migration are affected.

Arctic Amplification:-

• Refers to the phenomenon where changes in surface air temperature and net radiation balance produce large effects at the poles, specifically in the Arctic region.

• Result of Global Warming caused by anthropogenic forces or human activities since pre-industrial times, leading to a 1.1-degree Celsius increase in Earth's average temperature.

Impact on India:-

1. Extreme rainfall events

2. Warming of Arabian sea

3. Rise in sea level along the Indian coast

4. State of global climate in 2021 report, sea level along the Indian coast is rising faster than the global average rate.

A Blog by Jitisha .S. Hiremath